mmg.com.au

Up to 800 jobs could be lost in Campaspe Shire if the proposed water cuts are implemented under the draft Murray-Darling Basin Plan, according to the latest analysis by council consultants.

The recently updated report found net agricultural production could reduce by about 12 per cent and regional production could fall six per cent.

The report claims the dairy industry will be the worst hit, with a cut in gross production of 17 per cent.

‘‘In the Shire of Campaspe, it is expected that the majority of the water recovery will come from the dairy industry, as the largest water user in the municipality, and also the most exposed to known changes such as the closure of the Campaspe Irrigation District,’’ the report by Psi Delta said.

‘‘Within Campaspe, the relatively small volume but high value horticulture industry has a substantially higher capacity to pay for water and is not expected to be a major seller of water.

‘‘This said, individual growers may be at risk if markets for tomato products decline, or if important processing plants such as Cedenco reduce input requirements, especially now that the Heinz Girgarre tomato processing plant is closed.’’

Murray-Darling Basin Authority is working on a reduction of sustainable diversion limits across the basin of 2750Gl.

The new report estimates the impact on Shire of Campaspe’s contribution to the water cut.

The consultants warn that gaining water from the shire will be more attractive because of the availability of high reliability water shares, the delivery constraints of regions upstream and issues with market competition for water.

Using the authority’s own model on predicted impacts, the report points out that impacts will be higher in areas more dependant on agriculture and smaller towns and communities.

‘‘To date, water recovery in the Waranga (Goulburn) system (the major water resource in Campaspe Shire) has been at the higher end of estimates,’’ the report said.

‘‘Rate of future water buyback in the Waranga system will depend on the viability of remaining dairy farms.

‘‘The water recovery from the Campaspe system has been substantial with the effective closure of the Campaspe Irrigation District, the second major water resource, and water recovery may continue with remaining Campaspe diverters who are mainly producing lower-value crops.’’

The authority’s first guide, released in 2010, predicted 800 jobs would be lost across the whole basin area, but the figure was widely criticised as wide of the mark.